काली रात ----- Black Night

काली रात

वो रात काली गुज़री
वो शाम काली गुज़री

उसके बाद सब काला ही गुज़रा
उसके बाद सब धुँधला ही गुज़रा

वो झनझनाहट सी शरीर से गुज़री
वो अनाहट सी शरीर से गुज़री

वो रात काली गुज़री
वो शाम काली गुज़री

फिर तो रात ही रात गुज़री
फिर तो अन्धेरे के साथ ही गुज़री

आँखों का अन्धेरे से गुज़रना
और शरीर का अन्धेरे में रहना
नि:शब्द की तरफ़ जाना
अनन्त की तरफ़ बढ़ना
जीवन की झुलझुलाहटो से लड़ना
दुर अन्धेरी काली रात की तरफ़ बढ़ना
नि:शांत की तरफ़ खींचना
जीवन की गहराईयो तक जाना
फिर उस रात की तरफ़ लौटना

काली रात से गुज़रना
काली शाम से गुज़रना

वो रात काली गुज़री
वो शाम काली गुज़री

Black Night

That night passed black
That evening passed black

Then after everything passed black
Then after everything passed blur

That passed from the body like tingling
That passed from the body like unwounded

That night passed black
That evening passed black

Then passed with night and night
Then passed with dark and dark

Eyes passed from dark
Body live in dark
Go towards silent
Go towards indefinite
Fight with peeves of life
Go towards that fall black night
Pull towards silent
Go depth in to the life
Then back to that night

Passed with black night
Passed with black evening

That night passed black
That evening passed black

Copy right # Ajay Kumar#

Love like a sun and moon

Love like a sun and moon
Love in the blue sky
With cute rainbow
With raining season
I hold your hand with beautiful thoughts.
With fabulous rays of your face.
With your unforgettable smile
Feel like a dream
Feel like a journey of pleasant mind
Love like a sun and moon
Love in the blue sky

Above english poem written by Me -
Ajay Kumar

Courtesy - Google for 👎 picture

Welcome your likes & comments

Mountain Night

Whenever I read Gulzar Sahab I fly with words

Just I read one poem written by Gulzar Sahab. ..

Mountain Night

रात पहाड़ो पर कुछ और ही होती है

The night in the mountains is something else:
The sky never darkens
And the river is forever light
So much zari work can be seen
In the sky through the pattern of the stars :
Just like a city looks
All lit from a plane at night.

The wind speaks like someone
Holding a comb between the teeth
Cracking a little, a trifle threadbare
Like that of a boy coming of age.

Two waterfalls speak so loudly to each other
Like rustic friends
Meeting unexpectedly in valley
Discussing the entire village
Even a poem sleeps with its eyes half open :
The night in the mountains is something else.

India and Pakistan - Current Relationship

Pakistan is abusing and maltreated to  our soldiers. It shows defence strategy has failed. Pakistan assumed India can tolerate such thing easily.
Why ?
It should be remember surgical strike which enforced by Modi Govt. I supposed it was wrong action because Pakistan was want to prove that India do same action what Pakistan do while they deny.
Government seems detained with issue of kashmir and Pok. Govt is unable to resolve kashmir issue. Pakistan are using strayed youngsters to disturb kashmir. They are using their strategy prudently.
Why not India ?
India can approach with different escalation ladder like United Nation forum, Global forum, Economic forum, BRICS forum.
Why Govt can send back to Pakistan ambassador Mr Sartaj and also called their ambassador to India at same time.
Why Govt doesn't stop economic partnership or activity with Pakistan and also called asian and other country to do same thing.
Why Modi Govt didn't react about Turkish P.M. statement about kashmir issue.
This show Govt is flunking with diplomacy of neighbouring nations. It also show Govt foreign diplomacy has derailed.
It is time to rethink about foreign diplomacy particularly with neighbouring nation.
Their is no boundary of Love,Happiness & Sadness.

Energy and Climate change

Energy and climate change -

Indian economy is growing year on year.  60 % of energy depends on coal which hit  the nature and contributing in climate change.  India is 3rd in the world to consume coal for electricity after USA and China but India is thinking to take energy from other sources like solar energy, renewable energy and nuclear energy. 
Energy is the biggest market in world economy approx 6 trillion USD. Solar energy companies is making money to this opportunity therefore cost of  solar panels is high.
Solar energy is a revolutionary energy in the world.
Developed countries is consuming each resources for energy and also making money from these resources. They are asking to emerging countries to save the earth but how emerging countries like India will grow without energy we know Indian economy is yielding year on year.  We are looking new big market of solar energy who will lead to this world with solar energy.  We can see paradigm shift of entire world economy after complete establishment of solar energy.

Crony Capitalism

मै माजा का सिप लेते हुए और एक लघु कथा - गोविंद और गनेश देखते हुए left wing और right wing को देखते हुए  capitalism के बारे मे सोचता हुँ कि ये पुंजीवाद कहाँ ले जाएगा पुंजी किसी को बड़ा और खतरनाक बनाएगी और किसी को खत्म कर कर देगी । इस पुंजीवाद के सामने लोकतंत्र और एक आम इंसान कितना बौना नजर आता है ।इसकी दौड़ मे कितनो कितना कुछ छोड़ा किसी ने बिहार छोड़ा किसी ने युपी छोड़ा किसी ने दिल्ली किसी ने सब कुछ छोड़ा । जब सरकार और सरकारी संस्थान पुंजीवाद के चक्रव्यूह मे फँस जाए तो हम अन्दाजां लगा सकते है कि सरकार क्या कर रही होगी और ब्यूरोक्रेसी कहां मजे ले रही होगी । कोई left wing कि बात करते हुए capitalist बन जाता है कोई right wing कि बात करते हुए कोई Feminism की बात करते हुए कोई शिक्षा मे क्रांतिकारी परिवर्तन करते हुए । पुजीवांदीयो का सच यही है । यही है crony capitalism ।

While taking a sip of Maza and looking a short film Govind and Ganesh, considering left wing and right wing pondering about capitalism.  Where the capitalism take any body bigger and dangerous and eliminate anybody. In front of capitalism democracy and common man are so dwarf. How many people how much left in this race. Someone left Bihar, someone left U.P.,someone left delhi,someone left all. When government and government institutions are trapped in the maze of capitalism we can figure out what the government will do and where buerocracy will be enjoying.  Taking about left wing that becomes a capitalist, taking about a right wing that becomes a capitalist, taking about feminism that becomes a capitalist while making revolutionary change in education that becomes a  capitalist.  This is truth of capitalism.  It is a crony capitalism.

Lay off 56,000 employees from IT companies

This is globalisation effect. 
I always write and say globalisation is not a pancea of degrowth.
We can see IT companies , announcement about  lay off 56,000  employees due to Trump effect.
We can see this bad effect however Modieconomics Model is going towards globalisation model.
This economic model is not good as what prevail in European and American economy.
Why not Modieconomics Model adopt domesticglo economic model. Actually this is model invented by me.
This model referred to strengthen all SME, PSU,Indian companies and manufacturing unit through global companies. Outsider companies will assist to that companies but they will not make base in India. Yes they will take their share from profit.
This model doesn't allow disinvestment or divestment in PSU. All autonomy of PSU or Indian companies remain same but modus operandi will have to change. Performance is main parameter. If they doesn't perform it will merge to another PSU which are doing well or any outsider companies will assist to that companies.  Their will be certain measures to take further action for strengthen of unit or companies.

Surgical Strike on Black Money - Impact on India Economy

Rs 500 & Rs 1000 Note Pulled out from Market -

Issue and Challenges -

1. 84% of txn are moving in Rs 500 & Rs 1000 note challenge is RBI have 100 denomination note in place of 500 and 1000.
2. Major impact on common man which doesn't have sufficient money in home.
3. Micro and medium level trader have facing problem to move daily business without Rs 500 and 1000 note.
4. This two months have marriage season. Common man facing problem to handle financial txn.
5 . Still, Financial inclusion is not complete in India. I.e. Most of people don't have bank account. how to exchange and do other financial activity.
6. Today price of gold has increased due to buy gold in place of big denomination note. It is not clear about to catch high gold txn on jewellery shop.
7. Local trades are running slow due to insufficiency of 100 Rs denomination note.
8. What will happen after 5 yrs of new currency. Can black money will not be pile up in economy again?

Positive Outcomes -

1. High cash will inflow in economy.
2. Black money will be out at some level.
3. Major impact will be on financial terrorism.
4. Inflation in Real estate will be low because major money moves in this sector.
5. Sell of Banking products like Dr and Cr cards, Bank a/c, merchant banking machine will be high.
6. This decision will be push digital banking.
7. Digital txn will be high.

Inflation Vs Income in terms of good GDP

Extract –

Ø Investment is slow because income is low.

Ø This indicates jobless growth.

Ø Major part money of money is going to rich person and transmute in black money.

Ø Corruption is high.

Ø Some part of GDP is not growing.

Ø Jobless growth.

Ø Major part of population is unemployable.

Ø Currency is weakening.

Ø Unhealthy Development.

Ø Exclusive Growth.

Ø Create bubbles in Economy.

Ø Political instability.

Rishtey - Highway ----- Anguish of Woman - Hypocrisy of Relationship

The first dialogue -

I was eleven years old. An uncle came to my house. I was alone in the house one day and he called me, I went in the afternoon He called and said come, sit on laps
Again.....

I was very young, I did not in some sense, was just painful, time - often, great pain.

Today, twelve years ago, he still comes to my house, call me daughter, and we both saw him, I'm smiling like nothing happened not talk comfortably. Now everything is fine.

Second dialogue -

I stayed with him throughout life but He is not able to understand that what I am.He can kiss and say sweet heart only. This is a lie like thousands of lie in a life.

Third Dialogue -

Do not go there, where I am coming from, where are there I do not want to reach I'm willing to live in the midst of it. I'm trying to show the way continuously.

पहला संवाद -

मै ग्यारह साल की थी। एक चाचा मेरे घर आते थे। एक दिन मै घर मे अकेली थी दोपहर को वा आए और उसने मुझे बुलाया मै चली गयी , गोद मे बिठाया
फिर .....

मै बहुत छोटी थी मुझे कुछ समझ मे नही आता था, सिर्फ दर्द होता था, बार - बार , बहुत दर्द ।

आज बारह साल हो गए वो आज भी मेरे घर आता है मुझे बेटी बुलाता है, उसे देखकर मै मुस्कुराती हुँ और हम दोनो आराम से बाते करते है जैसे कुछ हुआ ही नही। अब सब ठीक है ।

दुसरा संवाद -

जिन्दगी भर मै उसके साथ रह लुंगी पर वो मुझको नही समझ पाएगा कि मै कौन हुँ।
उसे केवल चुंबन करके स्वीट हार्ट बोलने आता है। जिन्दगी की हजार झुठ मे से यह भी एक झूठ है।

तीसरा संवाद -

जहाँ से आ रही हु वहा जाना नही चाहती, जहाँ जा रही हुँ वहाँ पहुँचना नही चाहती मै उसके बीच मे रहना चाहती हुँ । मै चाहती हुँ यह सफर यु ही चलता रहे।

Contract Theory - Nobel Prize 2016

I am happy to hear this theory got Nobel Prize. This theory reveals side effect of miscalculated profit which imposed to workers or employees by companies for ambition in the process of contract between employer and employee or worker and companies.

This theory indicates about gap between employer and employee. Somewhere employees are in horrible situation particularly in pvt companies which exploit by Sr management of company.

Harvard's Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmstrom from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have won the Nobel Prize for economics for their research into contract theory. Their contributions have helped our understanding of the often conflicting incentives that operate in the contracts that enable cooperation between individuals, between employers and their workers, between governments, and which affect all of our lives.

I am sharing extract basis conversation between Arnab Bhattacharjee, Professor of Economics, Heriot-Watt University andJoseph Byrne, Professor of Economics, Heriot-Watt University.

Some extract are following -

A comprehensive framework for analyzing many diverse issues in contractual design, like performance-based pay for top executives, deductibles and co-pays in insurance, and the privatization of public-sector activities.

Risk sharing

Holmström, from Finland, developed research on optimal design of contracts from the perspective of an employer and their arrangements with a worker. This is work in the area of the “principal-agent problem”, where the employer is the principal. Here, there is potentially an issue in designing the best contract since there are competing incentives for the principal and agent, although they would still like to cooperate.

Risk sharing is an important part of this relationship, since workers would rather not have to bear all the uncertainties a firm experiences with variable revenue and profits. Firms would rather pass on some of these risks to workers, such that their costs are aligned with revenue. Holmström developed the informative principle, setting out how optimal pay should be linked to performance.

In our post-financial crisis world, we would all probably now agree that we should not reward the chief executive of a company with a large bonus for outcomes that are random. Further, career path matters for optimal contracts, for example we should pay different bonuses to younger or older workers, because younger workers can be rewarded with potential promotion in the future.

In the context of insurance contracts, problems can arise because individuals can become more careless after the contract has been agreed. Specifically there may be a conflict of interest between the less-than-moral contract holder or issuer. Indeed, the fact that it is difficult to measure compliance with a contract, and who was responsible for violations, can also present a challenge.

The Relevance -

The award award tends to reflect the world’s economic preoccupations, rewarding work which sheds light on areas which have demanded, and perhaps confounded, financial and political attention.

Hart and Holmström’s work has made a significant contribution to age old questions and new issues in economics. They can resolve some of the competing incentives in contract design while allowing cooperation. In many ways, their contributions are fundamental to modern ways of thinking in economics, but also have substantial cross-overs with many other areas of society and policy where contracts are very important.

In deciding to award the prize, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences have perhaps emphasized the point that the applications of these methods and theories are pervasive, and anyone interested in contracts may benefit from an understanding of the key principles behind their contributions. In some ways, that probably includes almost all members of society and the economy – individual households, workers and firms, the government and multilateral agencies.

Now the question of relevance to this theory. Need of hour is implementation and utilization of this theory for prosperity of employees.

Welcome to your important comments and Like

Ajay kumar - ajay.mrim@gmail.com

RBI & Govt – Dr D Subba Rao

I have listened first time to Dr D Subbao Rao at unofficial forum in IIM Banglore through social media.

 Dr Rao was bureaucrat. He was finance secretary before joining as R.B.I Governor. Why Dr Rao is important because of time to join R.B.I. Governor. He was joined in yr 2008 when financial crisis and turmoil happened. He joined on 5the September 2008 and Lehmen Brothers collapsed on 16th September 2008.

We know India had least affected or not affected from financial crisis. It is important that no one Indian financial institution was collapsed while Bank had collapsed in U.S.,U.K.,France, & Spain. We can devote to work of Dr Rao as a R.B.I. Governor. Rupees were stable, Inflation was not high, and Growth was balanced. It was difficult time to make balance between growth and inflation, Regulate interest rate (saving and credit) ,liquidity in the moment of financial crisis by R.B.I Governor Dr Rao.

 P Chidamabaram Ex finance minister of India. He is finance minister who appointed R.B.I. Governor Dr Jalan, Dr Y.V. Reddy, Dr Rao & Dr Rajan. He said if two people are agree on everything one of them is stupid. It indicates disagreement between Govt & R.B.I. He said Policy making is never black & white. It is not choice between A & B. It is nuance exercise. It is a art & craft. Sometime It can be yes or no by compelling political situation. He said R.B.I cannot hold all financial institution in India. Its hold some fraction of financial institution. So, It means it cannot be completely responsible for any financial decision.

Why I am writing about such kind of thing because Dr Rajan will end the term of R.B.I. Governor on 4th September 2016. Who will be Next R.B.I. Governor? To whom to appoint R.B.I. Governor of India after Dr Rajan by Modi Government.  Can R.B.I. preserve their autonomy?

Decisive Challenges in Indian Economy

Many country depend on other country to make healthy to their economy in global village, like America seems to India as a important destination to make their prosperous economy but if crisis and challenges will exist in one country, another country cannot go ahead to make economy healthy & prosperous So, we can see the towards importance of millennium development goal.

Challenges are lying in Indian economy. Its effect adversely to GDP. First we know the definition of GDP.

Definition - Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. Though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis, it can be calculated on a quarterly basis as well. GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation's overall economic activity.
We cannot increase GDP % until Govt does not curb below challenges -

• Water Crisis
• Agricultural
• Agricultural Land Issue

Water Crisis -   Total available water in India -

Data depict the situation of India in terms of water demand.

Consumption of water in India future projection -

Ground water usages pattern in different states -

Above all graphs shows water crisis in India.  12 states facing water crisis. Major states are Maharashtra, U.P., Teleangana and others. Ponds and River acquired by Land Mafia. Government is not taking responsibility and they do not have concrete plan to curb water crisis and ensure water availability to meet future demand. Data are showing the major water crisis in India, Latur district in Maharashtra where 2.5 cr liter water require but available water is 1.5 cr liter through different resources.

• Agricultural -

Agriculture plays a vital role in India’s economy. Over 58 per cent of the rural households depend on agriculture as their principal means of livelihood. Agriculture, along with fisheries and forestry, is one of the largest contributors to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

As per estimates by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the share of agriculture and allied sectors (including agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery) was 15.35 per cent of the Gross Value Added (GVA) during 2015–16.

Production of Agricultural in India is sufficient but Farmers doing suicide because they do not get proper profit.  Public distribution system is not good as required. India is facing lack of technology & digitization in agricultural. Still farmers are using high consumption of water and they do not aware about soil science. Still, Bank and Financial industry do not have suitable financial product for farmers.

We can see below graph Agri contribution in GDP is declining yr on yr.

• Agricultural Land Issue –

This is a very specious argument that is being made.Data from world Bank shows that around 60.3 percent of India's land area is agricultural land. The bank defines agricultural land as “share of land area that is arable, under permanent crops, and under permanent pastures.” In fact India has the second largest agricultural land in the world. As India Brand equity foundation, a trust established by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry points out: “At 157.35 million hectares, India holds the second largest agricultural land globally but below cycle represent if population is not balanced with land area it will create different kind of issue like degradation of agricultural land, water crisis and sustainability of human beings.

Below data depict that Land availability per person in India –

• Conclusion – I think any country must calculate the figure of requirement of below thing as proportion to population

1. Water
2. Land
3. Food
4. Energy
5. Job
6. Industry
7. Investment

Basis population and it should make balance between population and above need. In India Still government do not have strong population policy. How can Government use their population as a human resource? If people are poor & unskilled, it is worthless for government except vote bank. Still, Indian politician are using Indian population for vote bank and do not care about availability of resources and challenges for people of India.

We can see our GDP 7 to 7.5 % but it is a virtual figure exact figure can be 6 to 6.1 Government do not have concrete policy for equal growth of Indian people.

Comments are welcomed....

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